The autumn 2025 New York auctions delivered a burst of optimism that felt almost desperate after a dismal first half where confidence was fragile and bidding remained selective.

Art Basel’s year-end market analysis described 2025 as “struggling” before ending strongly with approximately $2.2 billion sold in November’s marquee auctions, a headline that helped stabilize sentiment even if it didn’t fundamentally fix the market’s underlying problems.

That late surge mattered psychologically because it suggested the worst might be over, but the rally arrived only after months of collectors reassessing whether art actually functions as an investment or merely as expensive decoration that sometimes appreciates.

Bank of America’s art market update noted that fine art auction sales contracted roughly 10% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, extending a multi-year first-half downtrend, while the Art Basel & UBS Art Market Report pegged 2024 global sales at approximately $57.5 billion, down 12% year-over-year, setting a subdued benchmark for what improvement even means at this stage.

The 2026 art market forecast shows signals of similar cautious trajectory as the market accepts that demand constraints now matter as much as supply constraints, suggesting recovery may look more like rebalancing than a return to the 2021 heat when stimulus money and pandemic boredom combined to create unsustainable buying.