"What will happen to Europe if it keeps ignoring AI?"
Three American labs each (!!) operate more AI compute than all of Europe combined. Today we're launching Europe 2031: a story of what might happen if that doesn't change.
Positive users praise the Europe 2031 report's writing and message while negative users dismiss it as AI slop and describe Europe's actual AI struggles as depressing.
One of our goals in writing AI 2027 was to encourage others to create their own detailed scenario forecasts; I am pleased to see this happening with Europe 2031. It depicts a world different from what I expect (AI capabilities in this scenario are more mild/mundane, not true AGI or RSI afaict, at least not until the mid-thirties) and also a luckier world than I expect (the AI race goes full steam ahead and yet results in the US staying democratic and maintaining control of its AIs even as they scale... perhaps this is related to the no-true-AGI aspect of the scenario, come to think of it. That would make sense.) Nevertheless I'm glad this scenario exists and I think it makes some good points about what it would actually look like to implement the "sovereign AI" default plan, and why it wouldn't work out so well. I wish it said more about what the EU should be gearing up to *do* with its leverage though. By default I expect the EU to waste what leverage it has on things that don't matter that much.
Most of Europe has not yet absorbed what AI is about to do to us. The few who have are not saying it loudly enough.
We wrote Europe 2031: a five-year scenario of the continent's slide into irrelevance, how AI is driving it, and what can still be done to change course.
This is the first serious analysis of what is likely on track to happen to Europe and the middle powers. (I expect it is understating the direness of the situation for palatability.) Strongly recommend.
Most of Europe has not yet absorbed what AI is about to do to us. The few who have are not saying it loudly enough.
We wrote Europe 2031: a five-year scenario of the continent's slide into irrelevance, how AI is driving it, and what can still be done to change course.
A plausible and frightening vision of Europe's near future, ending in economic collapse and vassal status under the US or China. Enjoyed reading it, although I feel a little depressed now.
https://europe2031.ai/
This is superb work. Europe needs to stare into the abyss on this: AI is happening; what happens if Europe does nothing? This piece is the best thing I’ve seen that brings the consequences to life.
Here's a project I've been working on recently: a vision of what happens if Europe doesn't take AI seriously, inspired by AI 2027 https://europe2031.ai/
Full scenario: https://europe2031.ai/ Executive summary: https://europe2031.ai/summary/ Pdf: https://europe2031.ai/europe-2031.pdf Audiobook: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0c8iIvzD5IEnT6xz6SU8q5
This was a good post though I think it is interesting how much vivid science fiction scenarios have become the new default format for policy papers & financial analysis for AI.
Here's a project I've been working on recently: a vision of what happens if Europe doesn't take AI seriously, inspired by AI 2027 https://europe2031.ai/
i am unsure if anyone who actually needs to read this will, but here goes:
https://europe2031.ai/
Scenario: https://europe2031.ai Summary: https://europe2031.ai/summary Audio: https://europe2031.ai/audio/
The ⭐⭐⭐ team: Daan Juijn, Stan van Baarsen @DadaJudith Lily Stelling, @philip_fox_ @AlexTPet @TomChivers
"What will happen to Europe if it keeps ignoring AI?"
Three American labs each (!!) operate more AI compute than all of Europe combined. Today we're launching Europe 2031: a story of what might happen if that doesn't change.
Most of Europe has not yet absorbed what AI is about to do to us. The few who have are not saying it loudly enough.
We wrote Europe 2031: a five-year scenario of the continent's slide into irrelevance, how AI is driving it, and what can still be done to change course.
An fantastic scenario analysis of what future is in store for Europe if it doesn't change it approach to AI, taking it serious as the transformative technology that it is.
Beyond LLMs, we are about to witness a revolution in robotics and automation - we aren't close to humanoid robots in homes yet, but much of the classical know-how of robot automation that was so essential to build Europe's industrial base will be disrupted by a new kind of robot workflow that, as of today, is dominated by American companies. Just as with LLMs before, this kind of robot automation will be dependent on compute as the key resource - if Europe does not (1) get compute (2) does everything in its power to foster AI research & development in Europe - they will be delegated to *buying the full stack of automation - robot hardware and the software that controls them* - from the US and China.
Most of Europe has not yet absorbed what AI is about to do to us. The few who have are not saying it loudly enough.
We wrote Europe 2031: a five-year scenario of the continent's slide into irrelevance, how AI is driving it, and what can still be done to change course.
Ok. Finished reading it. The story of Europe's failure in AI is turned into a gripping story (congratulations to the authors on finding this way to write it) and an outstanding SHOUT for action. I disagree with many things in this scenario (e.g. ASML cannot be used for leverage, I am afraid: all the EUV tech is San Diego-based (Cymer), and the chips are Nvidia, AMD, Intel, etc.) But the key insight is correct: (1) AI is THE critical technology of the future, and (2) Europe is falling badly behind on AI and running out of options. Both the economic and strategic consequences are brutal. We will write a reaction in Silicon Continent. In the meantime, please do read it. https://europe2031.ai/#timeline
Decent scenario. What offends me about it is… how happy people were to take the wrong lesson from R1. Europe is all in on this anti-Faustian, *feminine* cope – Techniques winning over vulgar raw power. We know how that works in combat sports. And DeepSeek knows it best.
Most of Europe has not yet absorbed what AI is about to do to us. The few who have are not saying it loudly enough.
We wrote Europe 2031: a five-year scenario of the continent's slide into irrelevance, how AI is driving it, and what can still be done to change course.
there is no option other than staring the grim reality in the face and accelerating immediately.
"What will happen to Europe if it keeps ignoring AI?"
Three American labs each (!!) operate more AI compute than all of Europe combined. Today we're launching Europe 2031: a story of what might happen if that doesn't change.
@paulg I'm not sure if European regulation really matters at this point anymore. Each US lab operates more compute than all of Europe combined. You could repeal/strengthen the AI Act and the gap would keep increasing.
We wrote down where that trend ends up:
"What will happen to Europe if it keeps ignoring AI?"
Three American labs each (!!) operate more AI compute than all of Europe combined. Today we're launching Europe 2031: a story of what might happen if that doesn't change.
2/ Plenty in Silicon Valley have already written the continent off. We don't accept this. Europe can still change course if it finds the political will and the courage to engage in the most ambitious political and economic agenda the continent has undertaken in peacetime.
Here's a project I've been working on recently: a vision of what happens if Europe doesn't take AI seriously, inspired by AI 2027 https://europe2031.ai/
Extremely cogent and well-written scenario, starting from the present, warning about Europe’s dangerous trajectory. I was in Paris for the AI Summit after DeepSeek r1, and I can attest that the level of delusion about what that model meant was exactly as this scenario describes.
Most of Europe has not yet absorbed what AI is about to do to us. The few who have are not saying it loudly enough.
We wrote Europe 2031: a five-year scenario of the continent's slide into irrelevance, how AI is driving it, and what can still be done to change course.
great essay, although today's announcements makes me feel the expiration date for europe is 2026, not 2031
Most of Europe has not yet absorbed what AI is about to do to us. The few who have are not saying it loudly enough.
We wrote Europe 2031: a five-year scenario of the continent's slide into irrelevance, how AI is driving it, and what can still be done to change course.
6/ Europe 2031 ends with five concrete actions 10-100x bolder than what Europe is proposing now: drastically more compute on European soil, AI middle-power coalition, labour-market reforms, a bold position in robotics & ind. AI, & a positive vision of what AI can do for society.
Essential content for anyone who cares about Europe's future in a world of AI acceleration!
Europe 2031: What getting AI wrong means for us - discussed it all with @SebJohnsonUK
