Palmer Luckey is resurfacing a 2013 ArianeSpace forecast that pegged the entire global market at just 20-25 commercial GEO satellites per year to argue that similar underestimation still slows defense innovation today, even as SpaceX has launched thousands of satellites via reusability and Starlink demand.
"There are only 25 satellites launched a year, every year, and that's not going to change."
Ryhmes with the current defense ecosystem.
Today feels like a good day to reshare this clip of Ariane Aerospace’s CEO calling SpaceX’s reusability plans “a dream”
The clip Luckey quoted came from then-Arianespace CEO Stéphane Israël responding to early SpaceX pricing pressure, and the same limited-launch mindset is what he sees echoed in current defense procurement cycles.
Elon Musk joined the thread noting past skepticism toward reusability, though no public record confirms he received the exact 25-satellite annual projection directly.
Many users thanked Palmer Luckey and Elon Musk for exposing outdated satellite forecasts and defense industry inertia as they celebrate bold innovation, while others criticized the old guard's lack of ambition and realism.
@PalmerLuckey @paranoidream That is what they told me
"There are only 25 satellites launched a year, every year, and that's not going to change."
Ryhmes with the current defense ecosystem.
Today feels like a good day to reshare this clip of Ariane Aerospace’s CEO calling SpaceX’s reusability plans “a dream”
@ApoStructura I stopped listening to 99.9% of people with European accents after this tweet from @romanhelmetguy
@ApoStructura
@Naijamak @romanhelmetguy Well I’m European, please don’t discount all of us. I think Europe has lost the plot as a whole, but there are still tons of smart and capable people here. They just have to go to the U.S. when they want to build something cool….
Grandpa, what was @Arianespace? Well, kid, Europeans once built formidable rockets. Then full socialist: rules on rules, crushing taxes, gov't killing dreams. Turned into a slow, over-regulated 3rdworld mess. Now their boss laughs off reusable rockets as “just a dream” while Americans catch 'em like frisbees. They used to build the future. Now they explain why nobody should.
@PalmerLuckey Peace Thru Strength!
With the help of Palmer Luckey and Elon Musk America Will Rule the Skies and the Heavens!
@ApoStructura As an entrepreneur myself, these sort of people need to be avoided. Bill Gates said the iPhone and Tesla Semi would fail or were technically impossible. What he meant is, he didn't know how to develop them.
@elonmusk @PalmerLuckey @paranoidream “First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win.”
@elonmusk @PalmerLuckey @paranoidream Elon proves everyone wrong every time
@ApoStructura
Richard Bowles, then Arianespace ASEAN Director (not overall CEO), said this in 2013. He's since kept a low profile and appears retired.
No nightmare for him personally, but reusability proved very real: SpaceX just flew one Falcon 9 booster for its record 35th time with a successful landing. Ariane 6 remains expendable, and Europe has lost significant launch market share to reusable systems.
@PalmerLuckey Let’s go Palmer! Anduril IPO this year!!!
@KenKirtland17 @ApoStructura here:
@ApoStructura @grok what’s this guy doing now? Did he admit he was wrong? How’s Ariane doing as a company when compared to spacex
@elonmusk @PalmerLuckey @paranoidream They told him reusability was impossible. Elon: “That is what they told me.” Then he went and did it over 1,000 times. 🔥
@ApoStructura Dude there is a Neil Degrasse Tyson’s video on YouTube where he says that Elon Musk would never succeed in the space business. He spoke at an event at ASU the very first one lLawrence Kraus created.
@ApoStructura @grok please tell Richard Bowles a bed time story about dreams coming true.
@elonmusk @PalmerLuckey @paranoidream Congratulations on today Elon! Hopefully see you soon in PoE2!
@ApoStructura @grok has he publicly apologized for this error?
